The Power Poll is sponsored by Mercury Public Affairs.

QUESTION 1

What does this Bears–Indiana situation most clearly signal about our region’s competitive landscape?

• 27%  Illinois is losing ground — the state must modernize its approach— state‑level delays and uncertainty are weakening Illinois’ position
• 15 % Indiana is aggressively competing — its business‑forward optimism makes its offers genuinely compelling.
• 27% The Indiana talk is noise — it doesn’t meaningfully reflect on regional competitiveness. The Bears are bluffing.
• 13%  Competition is healthy — cross‑state pressure can ultimately produce better outcomes.
• 18% – A governance challenge — the process highlights structural and political barriers that make large projects harder to execute in Illinois.

Question 2

With the election landing on St. Patrick’s Day, how do you think the holiday atmosphere will affect voter behavior?

• 8% It will boost turnout — people are already out and about
• 29% It will reduce turnout — too many distractions
• 0% It will shift turnout later in the day
• 52% It won’t make much difference
• 11% Chicagoans will treat voting as part of the day’s ritual

Question 3: A Personal Take on Affordability

Politicians talk a lot about “affordability,” but most people feel it in very personal ways. When you think about your own budget, which rising cost has become your “you’ve got to be kidding me” moment this year?

• 21% The grocery bill
• 17% The restaurant check
• 7% The utility bill
• 29% The property tax statement
• 17% The cost of a simple night out in Chicago
• 8% Transportation costs — gas, parking, rideshares, or CTA fares

Question 4: The Iran–U.S. Conflict and Its Implications

Recent events in the Middle East — including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets, followed by Iranian missile and drone attacks across the region — have raised concerns about regional stability, global markets, and potential retaliation against U.S. interests. Leaders across sectors are assessing which implications matter most for the country and the economy.

Thinking about the implications of the Iran–U.S. conflict for the United States, how important is each of the following concerns to you?
(1 = Very important, 5 = Less important)

• #1 The risk of a wider regional conflict that could draw in U.S. forces
• #2 The impact on global energy markets and economic stability
• #4 The possibility of cyberattacks or retaliation against U.S. interests
• #5 The need to maintain U.S. credibility and deterrence in the region
• #3 The potential for long‑term instability affecting global markets and supply chains

Question 5: The Illinois Education Decision

Illinois must decide whether to opt into the new Federal Scholarship Tax Credit Program. The program is funded by private donations supported by a federal tax credit of up to $1,700 per donor. No state or public‑school funds are used. If Illinois opts in, students in public, private, and homeschool settings can receive scholarships for tutoring, academic materials, therapies, dual‑enrollment courses, and other supports. If Illinois opts out, Illinois donors may still claim the federal credit, but their scholarship dollars would go to students in other states.

Thinking about the governor’s decision on whether Illinois should opt into the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit Program, how important is each of the following considerations to you?
(1 = Very important, 5 = Not important)

• #1 Expanding academic support for students who need extra help
• #4 Ensuring public‑school stability and predictability
• #3 Keeping Illinois‑generated scholarship dollars in‑state
• #5 Maintaining caution until long‑term effects are clearer
• #2 Providing families with more options for tutoring and educational supports

The Serafin Power Poll is a non-scientific survey of Chicago’s business, civic, and political leaders designed to provide a snapshot of insider sentiment on key issues shaping the moment.