Shutdowns, Enforcement, and Economic Pressure: November Power Poll
By: Thom Serafin
November 24, 2025
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As 2025 winds down, Chicago’s business and civic leaders are weighing federal gridlock, immigration enforcement fallout, tax proposals, and the economic pressures shaping next year. This month’s Serafin Power Poll offers a clear snapshot of how decision-makers are interpreting these turbulent moments.
Federal Government Shutdown Ending
Congress recently re-opened the federal government after the longest shut down in history, without resolving the issues that lawmakers claimed were in dispute. What’s your take on how the shutdown ended?
- 36.36% — I’m relieved, because it showed that cooler heads prevailed and disruption was minimized.
- 48.18% — It was a missed opportunity because it could have sparked overdue debate on spending priorities and institutional reform.
- 10% — The shutdown barely registered amid other pressing issues.
- 5.45% — No opinion.
Responses indicate varying perspectives on how the shutdown concluded, with views ranging from relief to concerns about missed opportunities for broader discussions. These differing viewpoints provide context for how respondents are evaluating federal actions more generally.
With that backdrop of political uncertainty, attention quickly shifts to federal actions much closer to home. Specifically, ICE enforcement in Chicago is important.
ICE’s Recent Chicago Operations
How do you interpret the impact of recent ICE enforcement actions in Chicago, including Operation Midway Blitz and related protests, detentions, and judicial rulings?
- 23.21% — Civic disruption — enforcement tactics have strained trust, heightened fear, and challenged community cohesion across neighborhoods.
- 6.25% — An economic vulnerability — workforce instability and public unrest are undermining business confidence and neighborhood vitality.
- 38.39% — A legal and ethical concern — questions around due process, detention conditions, and civil liberties point to a need for reform.
- 7.14% — A failure to communicate–jurisdictional tension — federal actions are clashing with local governance, values, and community priorities.
- 25% — While imperfect, enforcement remains essential to uphold immigration law and ensure public safety.
The results paint a divided landscape: concerns about legal rights and community cohesion sit directly alongside strong support for enforcement. Chicago’s civic and business leaders appear split between competing priorities such as safety, stability, and civil liberties, showing how layered and multifaceted this issue remains.
That tension sets the stage for yet another citywide debate, this time focused on the economics of doing business in Chicago.
Chicago’s Proposed Head Tax
If implemented, how do you believe the proposed $21-per-employee monthly head tax would affect Chicago’s business climate and public services?
- 24.32% — It would generate modest revenue for city services but risk accelerating business relocation to the suburbs or other states.
- 2.7% — It would send a strong message about corporate responsibility, though enforcement and compliance may be uneven.
- 8.11% — It would have limited fiscal impact and may distract from more sustainable long-term revenue strategies.
- 55.86% — It would deepen tensions between City Hall and the business community, complicating efforts to attract investment.
- 9.01% — It’s unclear — the outcome depends on how the tax is implemented and whether other reforms follow.
The pushback is clear: 80% of respondents warn the head tax would strain City Hall’s relationship with employers. Concerns about competitiveness and relocation loom large, signaling the business community’s heightened sensitivity to new costs.
As organizations plan for the coming year, these financial pressures directly influence what leaders identify as their top priorities heading into 2026.
Top Priorities for 2026
As you look ahead to 2026, which business priority feels most urgent for your organization?
- 49.53% — Growth and Expansion — pursuing new business-friendly markets, partnerships, or revenue streams to scale impact.
- 17.76% — AI Integration and Innovation — leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance productivity, insight, and competitive advantage.
- 21.5% — Reputation and Visibility — elevating brand trust, thought leadership, and stakeholder engagement in a crowded landscape.
- 11.21% — Cultural Alignment — investing in internal clarity, values, and team cohesion to sustain momentum and morale.
The results outline the strategic areas organizations consider most important as they prepare for 2026, with attention divided across growth, technology, reputation, and internal culture. This mix reflects both external pressures and internal organizational needs. Only 17.76% mentioned AI as a priority.
Shifting from operational priorities to personal well-being, the poll also asked how respondents support others during the holiday season. Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) is a type of depression that follows a seasonal pattern, most often beginning in the fall or winter.
Supporting Loved Ones During the Holidays
The holidays can be emotionally difficult for some people, who may feel stress, loneliness and pressure to appear joyful. When someone close to you seems to be struggling during the holidays, how can you help?
- 66.07% — Reach out quietly — a call, a note, or a visit — to let them know you’re thinking of them.
- 14.29% — Create a low-key gathering or shared ritual that offers comfort without pressure.
- 4.46% — Step back. Don’t make them feel obligated to participate in celebrations or get-togethers.
- 15.18% — I have not experienced this situation among my friends or family members.
Chicago’s Power Pollers overwhelmingly favor gentle, personal outreach over options such as stepping back or creating a shared ritual. The responses reflect an understanding that emotional support doesn’t always require large gestures — just presence, quietness, and care.
As Chicago heads into a new year marked by economic questions and continued political tension, these human-centered approaches offer a sense of comfort during difficult times.
Final Thoughts
This month’s Power Poll highlights how Chicago’s leaders are navigating a wide range of issues, from federal decisions to local economic pressures. While opinions vary across topics, the responses offer a clear snapshot of what’s top of mind as the year comes to a close.
Our team wishes you and your family a very happy holiday!
The Serafin Power Poll captures the perspectives of regional decision-makers and thought leaders in the Chicago metropolitan area. While not a scientific survey, it offers a clear and insightful gauge of prevailing sentiments, much like a reliable weathervane tracking the direction of Chicago’s winds.
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